My predictions for GPNJ

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As usual, I am away this weekend, so even though you will be reading this on Saturday, at the time of writing it is actually only Friday. Thus, this is a prediction article, but you will almost certainly be able to follow the Grand Prix in real time by the time this goes live.

Grand Prix: New Jersey is almost upon us and according to some, it looks like it will be one of the biggest Grand Prix ever held in Magic’s history – with some sources stating upwards of 6500 participants. As far as metagames go, it can’t get any wider, but even though I won’t be attending, I thought I’d chip in by giving you guys my predictions for the weekend and the top 8. It’s way too late to change your deck, but you can always agonize a bit about your choice, if you happen to read this before the swiss.

Wizards were kind enough to share with us the top 32 decks from the Legacy Championships of Eternal Weekend in Philadelphia just a couple of weeks ago. The article can be found here. The tournament itself is of a mind-boggling size – 481 participants, and that is dwarfed completely by the New Jersey predictions. Still, if we take these results into account and cross it with some results from recent Magic Online tournaments, three things are clear:

1) UR Delver might just be the best deck of the format, and you need to have a plan against them.

2) Burn is way better than you think, and you need to have a plan against them as well.

3) Hosing graveyards might be more important now than in years.

korfirewalker.hqGranted, the Magic Online Legacy metagame differs quite a bit from the real world, due to some discrepancies in card prices and availability, so perhaps we shouldn’t take that into account too much. That said, people at Grand Prix: New Jersey will probably face Burn in later rounds than they are used to – in a format where everyone is trying to chain cantrips to power up Treasure Cruise, Eidolon of the Great Revel is really dangerous. Kor Firewalker, of all things, has seen a rise in popularity in white sideboards, effectively demonstrating what a menace these red decks are to the format. It is in fact quite great, a 2/2 for 2 that neither UR Delver nor Burn can remove, that will block Monastery Swiftspears, Young Pyromancers and their tokens, as well as gain you life whenever your opponent cast a dangerous spell is pretty damn good in the current format.

nimblemongoose.hqThe losers in today’s Legacy meta are primarily Death and Taxes and RUG Delver. Both have lost a lot of ground lately, and it seems that they’re not able to compete with these extremely aggressive decks. RUG Delver has lost one of it’s unique selling points – Nimble Mongoose who simply can’t keep up with competing for graveyard resources against Treasure Cruise. Death and Taxes suffers a lot of splash damage from people sideboarding against Young Pyromancer, since Thalia, Guardian of Thraben, Flickerwisp, Mother of Runes and Phyrexian Revoker dies just as easily as elemental tokens to Golgari Charm, Toxic Deluge, Electrickery and other cards that people are sideboarding or even maindecking to combat UR Delver. Still, I wouldn’t out it past a competent pilot of one of these decks to make it to the top 8/16/32, but I don’t think there will be a large number of these decks there.

My predictions, in numbers:

# of Delver of Secrets in the top 8: 24

# of Brainstorm in the top 8: 24

# of Lightning Bolt in the top 8: 16

# of Treasure Cruise in the top 8: 18

# of Stoneforge Mystic in the top 8: 8

# of maindecked red blasts in the top 8: 2

# of Dark Ritual in the top 8: 4

And that’s it. Check back on Monday next week for a follow-up on my predictions. How correct do you think I am? Leave a comment!

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1 Comment

  1. psykopatmullvad

     /  November 15, 2014

    You have way more insight than me, so Im gonna go with your numbers.
    The more burn closer to the top, the happier I will be!

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

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